OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH


  • (1)  Smartson. P. NYONI            ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe  
            Zimbabwe

  • (2)  Thabani NYONI            Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe  
            Zimbabwe

    (*) Corresponding Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.5.82

Keywords:

open defection, malawi, box-jenkins, arima, approach

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Alhassan, A., & Anyarayor, B. K. (2018). Determinants of Adoption of Open Defecation Free (ODF) Innovations: A Case Study of Nadowli-Kaleo District, Ghana, Journal of Development and Communication Studies, 5 (2): 54 – 69.

Ayalew, A. M., et al. (2018). Assessment of Diarrhea and Its Associated Factors in Under-five Children Among Open Defecation and Open Defecation Free Rural Settings of Dangla District, Northwest Ethiopia, Journal of Environmental and Public Health, pp: 1 – 8.

Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, San Francisco.

Megersa, S., Benti, T., & Sahiledengle, B. (2019). Prevalence of Diarrhoea and Its Associated Factors Among Under-Five Children in Open Defecation Free and Non-Open Defecation Free Households in Goba District Southeast Ethiopia: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study, Clinics in Mother and Child Health, 16 (324): 1 – 9.

Njuguna, J., & Muruka, J. (2017). Open Defecation in Newly Created Kenyan Counties: A Situational Analysis, Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved, 28 (1): 71 – 78.

Nyoni, T (2018b). Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Kenya: Recent Insights from ARIMA and GARCH analysis, Dimorian Review, 5 (6): 16 – 40.

Nyoni, T. (2018a). Modeling and Forecasting Naira/USD Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach, MPRA Paper No. 88622, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.

Nyoni, T. (2018c). Box – Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe, MPRA Paper No. 87737, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.

Thiga, L. M., & Cholo, W. (2017). An Assessment of Open Defecation Among Residents of Thika East Sub-County, Kiambu County, Kenya, International Journal of Medicine Research, 2 (3): 9 – 20.

UNICEF (2018). Game Plan to End Open Defecation, UNICEF, New York

Published

2020-10-13

How to Cite

Smartson. P. NYONI, & Thabani NYONI. (2020). OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH . Middle European Scientific Bulletin, 5, 156-165. https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.5.82

Issue

Section

Science

Most read articles by the same author(s)