OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.5.82Keywords:
open defection, malawi, box-jenkins, arima, approachAbstract
Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi.
Downloads
References
Alhassan, A., & Anyarayor, B. K. (2018). Determinants of Adoption of Open Defecation Free (ODF) Innovations: A Case Study of Nadowli-Kaleo District, Ghana, Journal of Development and Communication Studies, 5 (2): 54 – 69.
Ayalew, A. M., et al. (2018). Assessment of Diarrhea and Its Associated Factors in Under-five Children Among Open Defecation and Open Defecation Free Rural Settings of Dangla District, Northwest Ethiopia, Journal of Environmental and Public Health, pp: 1 – 8.
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, San Francisco.
Megersa, S., Benti, T., & Sahiledengle, B. (2019). Prevalence of Diarrhoea and Its Associated Factors Among Under-Five Children in Open Defecation Free and Non-Open Defecation Free Households in Goba District Southeast Ethiopia: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study, Clinics in Mother and Child Health, 16 (324): 1 – 9.
Njuguna, J., & Muruka, J. (2017). Open Defecation in Newly Created Kenyan Counties: A Situational Analysis, Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved, 28 (1): 71 – 78.
Nyoni, T (2018b). Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Kenya: Recent Insights from ARIMA and GARCH analysis, Dimorian Review, 5 (6): 16 – 40.
Nyoni, T. (2018a). Modeling and Forecasting Naira/USD Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach, MPRA Paper No. 88622, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Nyoni, T. (2018c). Box – Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe, MPRA Paper No. 87737, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Thiga, L. M., & Cholo, W. (2017). An Assessment of Open Defecation Among Residents of Thika East Sub-County, Kiambu County, Kenya, International Journal of Medicine Research, 2 (3): 9 – 20.
UNICEF (2018). Game Plan to End Open Defecation, UNICEF, New York
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2020 Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
-
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.