Pediatric HIV outbreak in Pakistan: policy implications from generalized arima analysis

Abstract

HIV/AIDS is increasingly becoming a nightmare in Pakistan. If left uncontrolled now, the country’s limited resources could be overwhelmed by 2030 and this will cause worse sufferings and disease burden in the country. Using annual time series data on the number of children (ages 0 – 14) newly infected with HIV in Pakistan from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of children who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, W, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model as the parsimonious model. The residual correlogram further reveals that the estimated model is stable. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in Pakistan is rising and on this trajectory, the country’s limited resources will soon be overwhelmed. Our best model revealed that new pediatric HIV infections in Pakistan will continue to rise from the estimated 1460 to almost 1990 annual new infections by 2030. Amongst other policy directions, the study encourages the government of Pakistan to increase HIV awareness as well as expand PPTCT coverage throughout the country.