Open defecation in Kenya: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.5.75Keywords:
open defection, Kenya, Box-Jenkins, Arima, AprroachAbstract
Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Kenya from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The authors apply the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODK series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Kenya is likely to decline, although slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 9.9% to almost 8.2% of the total population. Hence, it is possible for Kenya to completely eliminate the practice of open defecation by 2030. The study basically suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Kenya.
Downloads
References
Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, San Francisco.
Busienei, P. J., Ogendi, G. M., & Mokua, M. A. (2019). Latrine Structure, Design, and Conditions and the Practice of Open Defecation in Lodwar Town, Turkana County, Kenya: A Qualitative Methods Research, Environmental Health Insights, 13: 1 – 11.
Desai, R., McFarlane, C., & Graham, S. (2015). The Politics of Open Defecation: Informality, Body and Infrastructure in Mumbai, Antipode, 47: 98 – 120.
Galan, I. D., Kim, S. S., & Graham, J. P. (2013). Exploring Changes in Open Defecation Prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa Based on National Level Indices, BMC Public Health, 13 (527): 1 – 9.
Megersa, S., Benti, T., & Sahiledengle, B. (2019). Prevalence of Diarrhoea and Its Associated Factors Among Under-Five Children in Open Defecation Free and Non-Open Defecation Free Households in Goba District Southeast Ethiopia: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study, Clinics in Mother and Child Health, 16 (324): 1 – 9.
Njuguna, J. (2019). Progress in Sanitation Among Poor Households in Kenya: Evidence From Demographic and Health Surveys, BMC Public Health, 19 (135): 1 – 8.
Njuguna, J., & Muruka, J. (2017). Open Defecation in Newly Created Kenyan Counties: A Situational Analysis, Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved, 28 (1): 71 – 78.
Nyoni, T (2018b). Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Kenya: Recent Insights from ARIMA and GARCH analysis, Dimorian Review, 5 (6): 16 – 40.
Nyoni, T. (2018a). Modeling and Forecasting Naira/USD Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach, MPRA Paper No. 88622, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Nyoni, T. (2018c). Box – Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe, MPRA Paper No. 87737, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.
Okullo, J. O., Moturi, W. N., & Ogendi, G. M. (2017). Open Defecation and its Effects on the Bacteriological Quality of Drinking Water Sources in Isiolo County, Kenya, Environmental Health Insights, 11: 1 – 8.
Thiga, L. M., & Cholo, W. (2017). An Assessment of Open Defecation Among Residents of Thika East Sub-County, Kiambu County, Kenya, International Journal of Medicine Research, 2 (3): 9 – 20.
UN (2015). Fact Sheet on Sanitation, UN, New York.
UNICEF (2018). Game Plan to End Open Defecation, UNICEF, New York.
WSP (2014). Economic Impacts of Poor Sanitation in Africa: Kenya, WSP Country Office, Kenya.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2020 Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
Under the following terms:
-
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
