Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach


  • (1)  Smartson. P. NYONI            ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe  
            Zimbabwe

  • (2)  Thabani NYONI            Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe  
            Zimbabwe

    (*) Corresponding Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.v5i.49

Keywords:

HIV, infections, Togo, box-jenkins, arima, approach

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Djibril, M. A., et al. (2015). Profile of People Living with HIV in Intensive Medical Care in Togo: Epidemiological and Evolutionary Aspects, Journal of Hematology & Thromboembolic Diseases, 3 (2): 1 – 4.

Landoh, D. E., et al. (2014). Distribution of New HIV Infections Among Key Risk Population Groups in Togo, Pan African Medical Journal, pp: 1 – 13.

Nyoni, S. P., & Nyoni, T. (2019). Modeling and Forecasting New HIV Infections at Silobela District Hospital, Zimbabwe: Empirical Evidence From a Box-Jenkins “Catch All” Model, International Journal of Recent Engineering Research and Development (IJRERD), 4 (12): 1 – 10.

Nyoni, T (2018b). Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Kenya: Recent Insights from ARIMA and GARCH analysis, Dimorian Review, 5 (6): 16 – 40.

Nyoni, T. (2018a). Modeling and Forecasting Naira/USD Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach, MPRA Paper No. 88622, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.

Nyoni, T. (2018c). Box – Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe, MPRA Paper No. 87737, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.

UNAIDS (2008). HIV/AIDS Estimates, UNAIDS, New York.

UNAIDS (2016). AIDS By The Numbers, UNAIDS, New York.

Yaya, I., et al. (2018). Modern Contraceptive Use Among HIV-infected Women Attending HIV Care Centres in Togo: A Cross-sectional Study, BMJ Open, 8: 1 – 8.

Published

2020-10-02

How to Cite

Smartson. P. NYONI, & Thabani NYONI. (2020). Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach . Middle European Scientific Bulletin, 5, 16-21. https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.v5i.49

Issue

Section

Science

Most read articles by the same author(s)