Adults newly infected with hiv in burundi: a box-jenkins arima approach

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Burundi from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2025. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests as well as correlogram analysis show that the G series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram and the inverse roots of the applied model further reveal that the presented model is stable and suitable for forecasting new HIV infections in adults in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Burundi will most likely decline, over the period 2019 – 2023, from approximately 698 to almost 90 new HIV infections. By 2025, Burundi could experience her first zero new HIV infections in adults! This implies that, despite the fact that Vision Burundi 2025 is a highly ambitious blue-print; Vision Burundi 2025 will largely be achieved as far as HIV/AIDS prevention and control is concerned.