Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

Smartson. P. NYONI; Thabani NYONI

doi:10.47494/mesb.2020.4.43

Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

(1) Smartson. P. NYONI University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
(2) Thabani NYONI Department of Economics, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe
(*) Corresponding Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.4.43

Keywords:

arima, forecast, prediction, prevalence, anemica, children, Sierra Leone

Abstract

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Nyoni, T (2018b). Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Kenya: Recent Insights from ARIMA and GARCH analysis, Dimorian Review, 5 (6): 16 – 40.

Nyoni, T. (2018a). Modeling and Forecasting Naira/USD Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach, MPRA Paper No. 88622, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.

Nyoni, T. (2018c). Box – Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe, MPRA Paper No. 87737, University Library of Munich, Munich, Germany.

Petry, N. et al. (2019). Micronutrient Deficiencies, Nutritional Status and the Determinants of Anemia in Children 0 – 59 Months of Age and Non-pregnant Women of Reproductive Age in The Gambia, Nutrients, 11 (2275): 1 – 20.

Stevens, G. A. et al. (2013). Global, Regional, and National Trends in Hemoglobin Concentration and Prevalence of Total and Severe Anemia in Children and Pregnant and Non-pregnant Women for 1995 – 2011: A Systematic Analysis of Population Representative Data, Lancet Global Health, pp: 1 – 9.

UNDP (2015). Human Development Reports, UNDP, New York.

Wirth, J. P., et al. (2017). Anemia, Micronutrient Deficiencies, and Malaria in Children and Women in Sierra Leone Prior to the Ebola Outbreak – Findings of a Cross-sectional Study, PLoS ONE, 11 (5): 1 – 22.

Published

2020-09-30

How to Cite

Smartson. P. NYONI, & Thabani NYONI. (2020). Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone . Middle European Scientific Bulletin, 4, 67-70. https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.4.43

Download Citation

Issue

Vol. 4 (2020): September

Section

Science

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

You are free to:

Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.

The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

Under the following terms:

Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.

No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.